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Image of a "precog," a psychic used to predict future crime, from the movie Minority Report.
And you thought Minority Report was just another Tom Cruise movie. Philadelphia is now experimenting with a computer system that attempts to predict the likelihood that a parolee will re-offend. Of course, Philadelphia’s system is a far cry from having three psychics locked in a dark basement predicting crimes. Their system relies on a complex computer system that reads an offender’s history, compares it with past parolee data, and predicts the likelihood that the parolee will commit another crime: high, medium, or low.
Currently, the system is not used to keep people in prison, but rather it identifies those who are at a high risk for re-offending, so those offenders can receive special services to help deter them from continuing their violent lifestyles.
Ethical Questions
The system seems altruistic enough for now, but it raises some ethical questions about “predicting” who will and will not commit crimes in the future based on an automated computerized process. Our current justice system is based on the idea that a man is innocent until proven guilty. If an automated computer system is used to label me as “high risk for re-offending,” is that not, in essence, labeling me guilty until proven innocent?
This is not to say that offering special services to those at high risk is a bad idea. In fact, identifying those persons who, historically, have a high risk of returning to their criminal lifestyle and offering them special service is probably a good idea. But if those special services are effective at reducing recidivism, then why not offer them to all parolees?
What “Might” Happen
However, regardless of the effectiveness of the programs that are offered as a result of parolee re-offense risk assessment, a system that automatically predicts a future life of crime for parolees can be a dangerous thing and needs to be handled ethically and with oversight in order for it not to negatively affect the parolee or society at large based on what “might” happen.
I’d love to hear your thoughts on this topic. Leave a comment and tell me what you think.
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The Joyce Foundation recently released a study they conducted, analyzing a host of government programs to employ ex-offenders for the purpose of preventing recidivism. Because experts agree that one of the best indicators of an ex-offender staying out of prison is gainful employment, it is worth it better understand these programs and ways that they can improve.
You can download the entire report Here.
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Alexandra Zapp, 30, murdered in 2002
Alexandra Zapp, 30, was murdered in 2002 by a sex offender at a bus stop in Bridgewater, Massachusetts. Now her parents are fighting for intelligent laws for violent offenders, not ineffective “headline legislation.”
Andrea Casanova and her husband have partnered with the RAND Corporation and the Ally Foundation, to create a non-profit institution that will focus on analyzing sexual and other violent offenders with an eye toward creating legislation that prevents recidivism.
The Casanovas feel that current legislation is usually based on knee-jerk reactions by politicians after a very public criminal case. This type of legislation is usually pushed through very quickly and garners a lot of headlines, but is usually ineffective at actually preventing crime. The Casanovas feel that this type of “headline legislation” does little actual good for the community and may harm it in some cases.
The new institute will analyze patterns of recidivism and psychological issues related to violent offenders. One of the problems of the current system, they say, is that offenders are released into the public based on the crimes they have committed in the past, not based on individual risk assessment models.
“We are just trying to figure out what really would work,’’ said Andrea Casanova. “I’m hoping it will reset all the standards for how we deal with sexual and violent offenders.’’
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